top of page
Search

An Analysis of Tariffs on the Bond Markets

  • Writer: Anh Nguyen
    Anh Nguyen
  • Apr 11
  • 5 min read

Understanding Tariffs

Tariffs have long been viewed through the lens of trade balances, manufacturing jobs, and consumer prices, however, their influence stretches far deeper into the financial system. As geopolitical tensions have risen and trade has become a strategic weapon, the bond market has emerged as a key area where the ripple effects of tariff policy are priced in real time. Unlike the equity markets, which may react more immediately to headlines, bond markets quietly absorb and reflect shifts in growth expectations, inflation risks, and global capital flows, all of which are influenced by the imposition or threat of tariffs.  

In an effort to reduce the gap between the value of goods that the US imports and those it exports to other countries, the US President has pursued an aggressive tariff strategy targeting key trading partners and strategic industry. As part of this approach, a 10% tariff was initially imposed on goods from China, later increased to 20%, while a 25% tariff was applied to imports from Mexico and Canada, including a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products ​(Clarke, 2025)​. Additional measures include a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports (12 March), a 25% tariff on imported cars (2 April), and an expected 25% tariff on imported car parts to take effect from May onwards ​(Clarke, 2025)​. While some exemptions have been granted under North American free trade agreements, these tariffs represent a clear pivot toward using trade barriers as a tool to narrow the trade deficit and promote domestic production.  


 

Yield Curves Performance Trends and Reactions to Tariffs 

Over the Atlantic, US investment grade (IG) bonds have returned 13.3%, while high yield (HY) bonds delivered 17.1% in the past year ​(Ziafati, 2025)​. These strong returns highlight investor appetite for credit exposure amid rate cut expectations. In February, IG bonds gained 1.6%, while HY remained flat, suggesting a possible pivot toward higher-quality credit as macro risks rise ​(Ziafati, 2025)​.  

However, the performance gap is showing early signs of reversing. The flat HY return in February versus continued gains in IG may signal investor caution toward lower-rated issuers as trade policies raise uncertainty about corporate earnings and default risk.  

With the newly announced 25% tariff on imported foreign-made cars, scheduled for the 2nd of April, it has already had a material impact on the Treasury yield curve, in which the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest in over a month, with the yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries widened to 63bp, the steepest since early 2022 ​(McCormick, 2025)​. This steepening effect reflects heighted inflation expectations and term premiums, where investors are demanding more compensation for holding longer-duration assets amid concerns that tariffs could fuel import price inflation, especially in autos and manufacturing sectors.  

As long-term Treasury yields rise, particularly due to tariff-related inflation fears, IG and HY corporate bond markets face further scrutiny. IG bonds, typically more sensitive to duration risk, may see increased volatility at the long end of the curve. However, strong credit quality and tighter spreads continue to attract demand. On the other hand, HY bonds, which are more sensitive to default risk and macroeconomic slowdowns, are now at risk of underperformance. If trade tensions dent corporate earnings or weaken global growth, spreads could widen again, reversing the tight conditions seen recently.  



 

Inflation Risk and Central Bank Response 

Tariffs have sparked a divided view on their inflationary impact and the appropriate central bank measures. While some economists maintain that broader inflationary impact of tariffs may be short-lived. If implemented swiftly and predictably, markets and supply chains can adjust efficiently. In this view, tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to shift long-term inflation trends or significantly alter Fed policy ​(Barnette, 2025)​. However, a growing number of investors and strategists take a more conversative stance, suggesting that persistent trade restrictions could feed into structural inflation, particularly as firms reconfigure supply chains and pass higher input costs on to consumers ​(Livsey, Smith, & Schmitt, 2025)​. This perspective has gained traction as part of a broader narrative around deglobalisation, which is expected to reduce global efficiency and increase production costs. With markets now expecting only two Fed rate cuts by 2025 ending, this reflects the renewed inflation fears tied to tariffs and fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, signs of growing economic pressure are emerging, with US GDP growth forecasted to decline by 2.8%, highlighting the potential drag that trade policy uncertainty and higher input costs may have on economic activity ​(Sor, 2025)​. The unknown surrounding the full implications of tariffs leaves the Fed walking a tightrope in an act to balance inflation with economic growth, while the ultimate effects on consumer prices, corporate margins and supply chains are still unfolding.  




Capital Flows and Safe-Haven Dynamics 

The recent widening of credit spreads in US HY bonds reflects a clear shift in investor sentiment and growing concern over the economic impact of trade policy, leading to notable changes in capital flows and credit market dynamics. The spread between US HY and Treasuries has widened to 3.22 percentage point, the highest in six months, as fears grow that Trump’s tariff agenda may weigh on growth ​(Schmitt, 2025)​. Analysts now expect HY bond spreads to rise to 4.4 percentage point by Q3, highlights concern over a potential deterioration in the economic outlook.  

The risk aversion is also affecting IG bonds, with spreads rising to 0.94 percentage point, their highest since September. Investors are becoming more selective, walking away from tightly priced deals, and shifting capital toward perceived safer assets such as US Treasuries. The volatility has also encouraged US firms to issue more debt in euros, with $37 billion in “reverse Yankees” issuance so far this year ​(Schmitt, 2025)​.  



These movements signal a clear flight-to-quality trend. Despite assurances from the Fed about economy’s resilience, markets are reacting to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs by reallocating toward safer, higher quality assets, reflecting broader caution in credit risk pricing and investment strategy.  



 

 

Conclusion

As tariff policies evolve from temporary trade tools to long-term instruments of economic strategy, their influence on financial markets continues to deepen. The bond market, with its sensitivity to inflation expectations, growth outlooks, and risk sentiment, offers a real-time window into how investors are pricing the political and economic uncertainty created by trade barriers. Recent market behaviour, such as the steepening Treasury yield curve, widening credit spreads, and increased safe-haven flows, signals rising caution, especially in the high-yield segment. While some investors view tariff-induced inflation as manageable, others see it as part of a broader structural shift tied to deglobalisation and rising geopolitical tension. The Fed, meanwhile, is left balancing between its inflation mandate and the growing risk of slower growth, as GDP forecasts weaken and corporate margins face pressure. As capital flows increasingly favour stability over risk, the long-term implications of tariffs will likely continue to shape bond market dynamics, investor behaviour, and monetary policy responses. Whether tariffs ultimately serve as a short-term shock or a long-term headwind will depend on their scope, implementation, and the global economy’s capacity to adapt. 

 


 

​​References 

​​​ 

 

 

  • BoW Facebook
  • BoW Instagram
  • BoW LinkedIn
  • BoW Spotify
  • BoW Email

Copyright © 2024 Banking on Women

bottom of page